Florida Housing Market Mid-Year Check: What's Moving and Why

Florida is having a moment in national real estate coverage, and most of it is negative. Headlines about condo assessments, insurance crises, insurers pulling out of the state, migration slowing, and prices falling. If you only read the headlines, you'd think Florida is on the verge of a housing collapse.

The data tells a more complicated story. Single-family homes statewide were up 2.4% year over year through May 2026 with the median at $425,000, sales are rising, pending sales are up, and Florida's inventory sits at 4.7 months — a healthier supply picture than California's. Meanwhile, condos are genuinely under pressure, especially older coastal buildings dealing with the aftermath of SB 4-D and structural reserve requirements. And in a genuinely new development that most national coverage missed, Florida's Citizens Insurance approved its first broad rate cut in years, effective July 1.

So what's actually happening? Florida isn't crashing. It's not booming either. It's normalizing unevenly, with condos as the pressure point, single-family holding up, insurance stabilizing for the first time in years, and rates now at seven-week lows. Here's what's moving heading into the second half of 2026.

The Statewide Numbers

Florida's single-family market through May 2026, the most recent statewide release from Florida Realtors:

Median sale price: $425,000, up 2.4% year over year. Not booming. Not falling. Modest, measured growth that suggests underlying demand is still there.

Closed sales: 24,915, up 0.6% year over year. Sales activity is stabilizing after several soft quarters.

New pending sales: 26,389, up 4.8% year over year. Pending sales rising faster than closed sales suggests momentum is building for the summer selling season.

Active inventory: 101,260 listings. More supply than any point in the last several years, giving buyers real choice.

Months of supply: 4.7 months. Approaching the six-month level generally considered a balanced market. Compared to California's 3.4 months, Florida is meaningfully more buyer-friendly.

Median days to contract: 43. Median days to sale: 83. Homes are taking longer than they did in 2021-2022, but they're still moving.

The takeaway: Florida's single-family market is functioning normally. It's not the frenzy of 2021, but it's also not the distress that some headlines suggest.

Metro-by-Metro: Where Prices Are Actually Moving

Florida is not one market. Different metros are telling very different stories through May 2026.

Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach: Median $660,000, up 1.5% year over year. The most expensive Florida metro is still growing modestly, though slowly. Miami city-level data shows longer days on market (113 days on Redfin) and softer condo pricing, but single-family and the broader metro are holding value.

Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater: Median $410,000, up 0.6% year over year. Essentially flat. Tampa was one of the hottest markets in the country in 2021-2022 and has been correcting since. Case-Shiller shows Tampa in modestly negative territory. That's the expected pattern for a market that ran too hot too fast. St. Petersburg specifically is actually up 15% year over year on some measures — different neighborhoods within the Tampa metro are moving very differently.

Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford: Median $445,000, down 1.1% year over year. One of the few Florida metros posting an actual YoY decline. Orlando's rental market has cooled (rent down 4.3% YoY), which affects investor demand for condos and starter homes.

Jacksonville: Median $419,500, up 5.1% year over year. Notably strong. Jacksonville has benefited from continued population growth, a more affordable price point relative to South Florida, and less exposure to the condo crisis that's hurting Miami-Dade.

Cape Coral–Fort Myers: Median $380,000, up 1.3% year over year. Modest growth despite significant hurricane exposure and one of the state's biggest inventory buildups. Southwest Florida overall has been softer than the state average.

Tallahassee: Median $355,000, up 4.4% year over year. The North Florida story: relatively affordable, insulated from most of the coastal insurance stress, benefiting from steady state government and university employment.

At the city level, Redfin's three-month rollups ending May 2026 show significant divergence within metros:

- St. Petersburg: +15.1% YoY to $477,714 - Hialeah: +9.7% YoY to $526,685 - Tallahassee city: +5.4% YoY to $289,827 - Jacksonville: +0.9% YoY to $304,818 - Miami: -0.44% YoY to $652,110 - Tampa: -1.4% YoY to $442,585 - Orlando: -2.0% YoY to $409,755 - Cape Coral: -2.1% YoY to $359,785 - Pembroke Pines: -4.3% YoY to $507,196

The pattern isn't "Florida is cooling." The pattern is "Florida is redistributing," with some markets still growing meaningfully and others correcting from earlier overruns.

The Condo Situation

This is the piece of Florida that's genuinely distressed, and it deserves its own discussion.

Following the 2021 Surfside collapse, Florida passed SB 4-D and follow-up reforms. As of January 1, 2026, the grace period for compliance ended. Condo buildings three stories or higher must now complete milestone structural inspections and fully fund reserves for major components. Boards can no longer vote to waive reserves.

The practical effect has been significant:

- Older condo buildings (especially 1970s-1980s coastal properties) are facing five-figure and sometimes six-figure special assessments - HOA fees have doubled in many older buildings ($650 to $1,400/month is a common pattern) - Condo values statewide dropped roughly 9.9% year over year in the past 12 months - Condo inventory statewide sits at 8-13 months of supply depending on how it's measured - Some 92% of major condo markets are declining - Cash buyers are propping up the floor of the condo market (33% of all Florida transactions, 67%+ in Miami-Dade luxury)

For condo buyers, this creates real opportunity in well-funded, structurally sound buildings — often at discounts of 20-30% from 2021 peaks. It also creates real risk in poorly funded buildings with pending assessments or deferred maintenance.

I covered condo financing in detail in a previous post, including how Fannie Mae's LL-2026-03 tightened underwriting for buildings with unresolved SIRS issues or insurance problems. If you're considering a Florida condo purchase, the diligence work — reserve studies, association financials, pending assessments, insurance status, structural inspection reports — is more important than ever.

Single-family homes don't have these problems. This is important because national headlines often conflate "Florida condos are struggling" with "Florida real estate is struggling." The single-family story is much more balanced than the condo story.

The Insurance Update Nobody Talked About

Buried in most Florida real estate coverage is a genuinely positive development: Florida's Citizens Property Insurance approved its first broad rate cut in years.

Effective July 1, 2026:

- Multiperil policies: average 8.8% rate decrease - Wind-only policies: average 5.5% rate decrease - Larger cuts in some South Florida counties (11-14% in Miami-Dade)

Major private carriers including State Farm, AAA, Florida Peninsula, and Universal have also filed decreases. Statewide average premiums are still projected to rise slightly (about 2% to $8,458) because rebuilding costs continue climbing, but the trajectory has flattened for the first time in years.

This matters for the market for two reasons. First, it removes some of the immediate pressure on Florida homeowners who've been getting pounded by annual premium increases. Second, it signals that the insurance market may be stabilizing after years of exits and rate hikes. If premiums drop 10% or more over the next year, some condo associations that couldn't afford master policies at previous rates might actually be able to secure coverage — which could unlock deals that have been stuck.

Florida is still one of the most expensive homeowner's insurance states in the country. Averaging over $8,000 per year is roughly three times the national average. But the direction of travel matters, and for the first time in a long time, it's pointing the right way.

Mortgage Rates and Buyer Activity

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.43% as of July 2, 2026, a seven-week low, down from 6.49% the week prior. The 15-year fixed was 5.79%. Purchase applications are running ahead of 2025's pace and have shown year-over-year growth for nearly three months.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, noted that "prospective homebuyers are finding opportunities in markets with ample inventory and easing home-price growth." Florida fits that description precisely.

For Florida specifically, current rates plus more inventory plus insurance stabilization plus condo distress in certain segments creates an unusual buying environment. Serious buyers are finding real leverage they didn't have 18 months ago.

Who Should Be Paying Attention Right Now

Single-family buyers in Jacksonville, Tampa, Tallahassee, or Central Florida. These markets have inventory, some price flexibility from sellers, and single-family stock that doesn't carry the condo assessment risk. Rates near 6.43% plus seller flexibility can produce real value.

Condo buyers who are willing to do the due diligence. Well-funded, structurally sound, insurance-covered condos in good locations are trading at meaningful discounts to 2021 levels. The buyer who does the reserve study review, gets independent structural inspection input, and verifies the association's insurance status can find real bargains. The buyer who skips that work can end up with a $50,000 special assessment 90 days after closing.

Investors looking at rental properties. Florida's rental market has softened (statewide rents down about 3% YoY), which affects investor math, but the inventory of available properties has grown significantly and cap rates on well-priced acquisitions are more attractive than they've been in years. DSCR loans work well in Florida because rental income supports qualifying regardless of the investor's personal income situation).

Sellers with realistic expectations. Well-priced Florida homes still move. The homes that sit are the ones priced to 2021 comps. The Realtor.com data shows Florida sellers who price to current market conditions are seeing homes sell in reasonable timelines. Overpricing gets punished harder now than it did during the frenzy.

Current Florida homeowners considering an insurance shop. With Citizens cutting rates and private carriers following, it's the first time in years where actively shopping your policy might produce real savings. Worth the phone call.

What I Tell Florida Clients

Florida is a market that requires more nuance than most national coverage gives it. It's not a monolithic story of decline or opportunity — it's a set of specific markets, property types, and neighborhoods each moving on their own trajectory.

The general principles I share with clients considering Florida:

Get insurance quotes before you write an offer, not after. Florida is where insurance can kill a deal at Day 15. Get quotes early, understand your coverage costs, and factor them into your monthly payment analysis.

Verify condo association health before falling in love with the unit. Reserve studies, financial statements, pending assessments, insurance status, and structural inspection reports. Every one of them matters. A well-funded, well-run condo association in the current market is worth a premium. A poorly funded one is worth avoiding.

Don't wait for the "bottom." Statewide single-family prices are up. Insurance is stabilizing. Rates are at seven-week lows. If you find the right property in the right market with the right numbers, buying now beats waiting for a hypothetical better moment.

Don't overweight statewide headlines. Florida is a state of markets. What's happening in Jacksonville isn't what's happening in Miami-Dade. Look at your specific target market, not the national coverage.

Use the right financing structure. For single-family purchases, conventional and FHA work well. For investment properties, DSCR loans qualify on the rental income rather than personal income and can be structured under LLCs. For self-employed buyers, bank statement loans provide options traditional lenders won't. For veterans, VA financing offers 0% down and no mortgage insurance. The right loan structure can make a marginal deal into a strong one.